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美联储持续加息概率小

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年01月18日 04:03:28
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(随)(着)(美)(联)(储)(于)(上)(一)(年)(底)(启)(动)(2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(首)(次)(加)(息)(,并)(被)(认)(为)(符)(合)(市)(场)(预)(期)(后)(,当)(前)(分)(析)(人)(士)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,美)(联)(储)(已)(步)(入)(加)(息)(周)(期)(。有)(的)(研)(究)(机)(构)(甚)(至)(认)(为)(,美)(联)(储)(2016年)(将)(加)(息)(四)(次)(,时)(间)(点)(分)(别)(于)(3月)(份)(、6月)(份)(、9月)(份)(和)(12月)(份)(。通)(常)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(主)(要)(依)(据)(在)(两)(方)(面)(因)(素)(:一)(是)(失)(业)(率)(的)(持)(续)(下)(降)(并)(维)(持)(低)(位)(,当)(前)(美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(已)(处)(在)(历)(史)(较)(低)(位)(至)(5%附)(近)(;二)(是)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(尤)(其)(是)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(率)(上)(行)(的)(风)(险)(,2015年)(四)(季)(度)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(的)(主)(要)(指)(标)(核)(心)(CPI处)(在)(2%附)(近)(。从)(历)(史)(规)(律)(角)(度)(看)(,在)(上)(述)(两)(条)(件)(满)(足)(情)(况)(下)(,美)(国)(将)(进)(入)(加)(息)(周)(期)(。虽)(然)(历)(史)(有)(相)(似)(之)(处)(,但)(本)(次)(情)(况)(可)(能)(会)(不)(一)(样)(。经)(过)(上)(年)(底)(的)(首)(次)(加)(息)(后)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(可)(能)(会)(进)(入)(一)(个)(较)(长)(时)(期)(的)(“观)(察)(期)(”。
  美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(较)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(降)(,既)(有)(经)(济)(增)(长)(带)(动)(就)(业)(的)(贡)(献)(,但)(也)(要)(归)(因)(于)(人)(口)(结)(构)(的)(变)(化)(。新)(增)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(数)(量)(减)(少)(,就)(业)(压)(力)(减)(缓)(。美)(国)(二)(战)(后)(兴)(起)(的)(“婴)(儿)(潮)(”延)(至)(1964年)(左)(右)(,之)(后)(人)(口)(出)(生)(率)(快)(速)(下)(降)(。相)(应)(地)(,导)(致)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(增)(量)(在)(2000年)(初)(达)(到)(顶)(峰)(后)(开)(始)(减)(少)(。每)(年)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(新)(增)(数)(量)(已)(从)(顶)(峰)(的)(230万)(人)(以)(上)(,逐)(渐)(减)(少)(至)(近)(年)(的)(不)(足)(50万)(人)(。预)(期)(随)(后)(的)(年)(份)(,劳)(动)(人)(口)(增)(量)(呈)(负)(增)(长)(。劳)(动)(人)(口)(增)(量)(规)(模)(的)(下)(降)(,使)(得)(就)(业)(人)(员)(在)(社)(会)(上)(寻)(找)(工)(作)(相)(对)(变)(得)(容)(易)(,带)(动)(失)(业)(率)(下)(行)(。  美)(国)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(的)(主)(要)(指)(标)(通)(常)(以)(剔)(除)(食)(品)(与)(能)(源)(分)(项)(后)(的)(核)(心)(消)(费)(者)(物)(价)(指)(数)((CPI),目)(前)(该)(指)(标)(逐)(渐)(上)(升)(至)(2%附)(近)(,处)(在)(美)(联)(储)(盯)(住)(的)(目)(标)(区)(间)(。在)(过)(去)(的)(一)(个)(季)(度)(中)(,从)(分)(项)(核)(心)(CPI的)(构)(成)(因)(素)(变)(动)(看)(,娱)(乐)(、教)(育)(通)(讯)(类)(的)(物)(价)(上)(涨)(幅)(度)(较)(小)(;信)(息)(技)(术)(与)(个)(人)(电)(子)(设)(备)(应)(用)(等)(分)(项)(物)(价)(指)(数)(反)(而)(持)(续)(下)(降)(;医)(疗)(保)(障)(类)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(达)(3%附)(近)(;住)(宅)(类)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(2%左)(右)(。在)(美)(国)(CPI的)(构)(成)(当)(中)(,医)(疗)(保)(障)(类)(权)(重)(为)(7%,住)(宅)(类)(权)(重)(为)(42%。核)(心)(CPI上)(涨)(的)(主)(要)(推)(手)(来)(自)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(和)(住)(宅)(CPI的)(较)(快)(上)(行)(。  医)(疗)(保)(障)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(主)(要)(为)(患)(者)(保)(障)(与)(平)(价)(医)(疗)(法)(案)((PPACA)所)(致)(。美)(国)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(制)(度)(改)(革)(的)(争)(议)(由)(来)(已)(久)(,争)(论)(的)(焦)(点)(是)(在)(覆)(盖)(人)(群)(和)(成)(本)(负)(担)(等)(问)(题)(上)(。奥)(巴)(马)(坚)(持)(认)(为)(,应)(该)(扩)(大)(医)(保)(覆)(盖)(人)(群)(,超)(出)(的)(成)(本)(中)(政)(府)(应)(该)(承)(担)(主)(要)(部)(分)(。而)(共)(和)(党)(反)(对)(,认)(为)(政)(府)(承)(担)(大)(量)(的)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(支)(出)(,会)(导)(致)(医)(疗)(服)(务)(等)(资)(源)(错)(配)(,效)(率)(低)(下)(,是)(浪)(费)(纳)(税)(人)(的)(钱)(。PPACA的)(争)(议)(恰)(逢)(美)(国)(金)(融)(危)(机)(时)(期)(,市)(场)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(景)(预)(期)(悲)(观)(,扩)(大)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(的)(覆)(盖)(人)(群)(,增)(加)(政)(府)(预)(算)(支)(出)(,有)(利)(于)(刺)(激)(需)(求)(,提)(振)(市)(场)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(信)(心)(。此)(法)(案)(最)(终)(于)(2010年)(3月)(获)(得)(美)(国)(国)(会)(通)(过)(。“婴)(儿)(潮)(”时)(期)(出)(生)(的)(、在)(这)(时)(期)(恰)(好)(达)(到)(退)(休)(年)(龄)(的)(人)(数)(共)(约)(7700万)(人)(。根)(据)(PPACA内)(容)(,退)(休)(后)(将)(获)(得)(新)(增)(的)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(补)(助)(。全)(社)(会)(对)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(需)(求)(也)(相)(应)(明)(显)(增)(加)(,带)(动)(医)(疗)(行)(业)(与)(服)(务)(的)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。这)(一)(因)(素)(对)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(的)(影)(响)(是)(结)(构)(性)(的)(一)(次)(性)(效)(应)(,不)(具)(备)(全)(面)(物)(价)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(的)(压)(力)(。  住)(宅)(类)(物)(价)(的)(上)(涨)(主)(要)(受)(益)(于)(极)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(所)(致)(。为)(了)(应)(对)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,美)(联)(储)(自)(2008年)(以)(来)(将)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(持)(续)(维)(持)(在)(零)(区)(间)(并)(实)(施)(了)(三)(轮)(QE,低)(利)(率)(环)(境)(和)(宽)(松)(的)(流)(动)(性)(扭)(转)(了)(市)(场)(对)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(悲)(观)(预)(期)(,对)(住)(宅)(需)(求)(不)(断)(上)(升)(,带)(动)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。根)(据)(Corelogic房)(价)(指)(数)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,至)(2015年)(底)(,美)(国)(房)(价)(比)(2009年)(上)(涨)(30%以)(上)(,房)(屋)(租)(金)(价)(格)(相)(应)(提)(高)(,推)(动)(住)(宅)(类)(的)(CPI上)(涨)(。但)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(对)(利)(率)(的)(变)(动)(较)(敏)(感)(,预)(期)(美)(联)(储)(此)(次)(加)(息)(后)(,将)(会)(一)(定)(程)(度)(抑)(制)(住)(宅)(与)(租)(金)(价)(格)(的)(上)(升)(空)(间)(。  尽)(管)(医)(疗)(保)(障)(、住)(宅)(类)(行)(业)(景)(气)(度)(上)(升)(,但)(难)(以)(掩)(盖)(美)(国)(工)(业)(企)(业)(的)(回)(升)(力)(度)(仍)(较)(疲)(乏)(。从)(国)(民)(经)(济)(核)(算)(角)(度)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(拉)(动)(力)(主)(要)(是)(服)(务)(业)(,但)(从)(历)(史)(规)(律)(和)(动)(态)(角)(度)(分)(析)(,要)(实)(现)(经)(济)(的)(持)(续)(回)(升)(,仍)(需)(要)(工)(业)(企)(业)(持)(续)(好)(转)(为)(基)(础)(。2012年)(,在)(杰)(克)(逊)(霍)(尔)(的)(全)(球)(央)(行)(行)(长)(会)(议)(上)(,对)(美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(具)(有)(重)(要)(影)(响)(的)(经)(济)(学)(家)(伍)(德)(福)(德)(就)(提)(出)(,要)(充)(分)(关)(注)(产)(出)(缺)(口)(的)(变)(动)(。若)(实)(际)(的)(产)(出)(缺)(口)(与)(潜)(在)(的)(产)(出)(缺)(口)(为)(负)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(变)(动)(需)(要)(审)(慎)(。美)(国)(的)(工)(业)(部)(门)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(指)(标)(这)(一)(高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(工)(业)(企)(业)(产)(能)(利)(用)(仍)(徘)(徊)(在)(温)(和)(区)(间)(,和)(历)(史)(较)(高)(的)(水)(平)(仍)(有)(较)(大)(差)(距)(,结)(合)(企)(业)(家)(投)(资)(信)(心)(角)(度)(综)(合)(判)(断)(,美)(国)(工)(业)(部)(门)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(还)(有)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,从)(侧)(面)(反)(映)(出)(美)(国)(的)(实)(际)(产)(出)(并)(未)(明)(显)(高)(于)(潜)(在)(产)(出)(缺)(口)(,意)(味)(着)(美)(国)(经)(济)(全)(面)(回)(升)(并)(带)(来)(全)(面)(物)(价)(上)(涨)(压)(力)(可)(能)(性)(小)(。美)(联)(储)(持)(续)(加)(息)(的)(基)(础)(并)(不)(牢)(固)(。
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