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美联储将怎样提高利率?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年01月18日 03:31:02
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(美)(联)(储)(上)(一)(次)(从)(零)(利)(率)(的)(边)(缘)(提)(高)(利)(率)(,还)(要)(远)(溯)(至)(1947年)(。而)(在)(本)(周)(,美)(联)(储)(将)(可)(能)(再)(次)(做)(出)(加)(息)(决)(定)(,将)(长)(期)(徘)(徊)(于)(0-0.25%的)(短)(期)(利)(率)(上)(调)(。
  这)(意)(味)(着)(利)(率)(连)(续)(七)(年)(维)(持)(在)(接)(近)(零)(水)(平)(的)(局)(面)(或)(将)(结)(束)(。美)(联)(储)(这)(次)(可)(能)(会)(使)(用)(新)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(工)(具)(来)(调)(整)(利)(率)(。那)(么)(,这)(是)(怎)(么)(发)(生)(的)(?
  《经)(济)(学)(人)(》指)(出)(,美)(联)(储)(试)(图)(上)(调)(利)(率)(——即)(美)(国)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(,该)(利)(率)(主)(要)(反)(映)(的)(是)(美)(国)(银)(行)(间)(隔)(夜)(拆)(借)(市)(场)(的)(情)(况)(。由)(于)(各)(银)(行)(在)(美)(联)(储)(的)(账)(户)(,每)(天)(都)(需)(要)(保)(持)(最)(低)(量)(的)(资)(金)(储)(备)(,所)(以)(产)(生)(了)(银)(行)(间)(同)(业)(借)(款)(。那)(些)(拥)(有)(充)(足)(资)(金)(的)(银)(行)(,将)(资)(金)(借)(给)(那)(些)(需)(要)(的)(银)(行)(机)(构)(,以)(此)(来)(弥)(补)(他)(们)(的)(配)(额)(。
  过)(去)(,美)(联)(储)(通)(过)(买)(卖)(政)(府)(债)(券)(来)(调)(整)(银)(行)(间)(的)(短)(期)(利)(率)(。例)(如)(,当)(美)(联)(储)(向)(一)(家)(银)(行)(出)(售)(债)(券)(,这)(将)(削)(减)(银)(行)(在)(美)(联)(储)(户)(头)(的)(余)(额)(,此)(举)(将)(使)(得)(市)(场)(上)(资)(金)(出)(现)(减)(少)(——但)(是)(银)(行)(又)(必)(须)(满)(足)(在)(美)(联)(储)(账)(户)(的)(最)(低)(资)(金)(要)(求)(。因)(此)(,银)(行)(间)(隔)(夜)(贷)(款)(的)(资)(金)(成)(本)(就)(随)(之)(升)(高)(了)(。
  但)(是)(现)(在)(,这)(项)(机)(理)(正)(在)(受)(到)(挑)(战)(。由)(于)(2008年)(以)(来)(的)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(,美)(联)(储)(已)(经)(买)(入)(了)(总)(额)(达)(3.8万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(国)(债)(和)(其)(他)(证)(券)(,试)(图)(以)(此)(来)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(。这)(创)(造)(了)(大)(量)(新)(的)(资)(金)(,因)(此)(银)(行)(资)(金)(储)(备)(都)(非)(常)(充)(足)(。
  为)(了)(提)(高)(利)(率)(,美)(联)(储)(可)(能)(不)(得)(不)(削)(减)(这)(样)(的)(买)(入)(行)(为)(,直)(至)(短)(期)(利)(率)(重)(新)(走)(高)(。
  目)(前)(,美)(联)(储)(主)(要)(通)(过)(两)(种)(工)(具)(来)(调)(节)(当)(前)(利)(率)(。
  一)(个)(是)(设)(置)(高)(于)(需)(要)(的)(储)(备)(金)(利)(率)(——通)(常)(被)(称)(为)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(率)((银)(行)(以)(该)(比)(例)(将)(资)(产)(存)(放)(于)(美)(联)(储)()。没)(有)(任)(何)(一)(家)(银)(行)(愿)(意)(以)(低)(于)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(率)(的)(利)(率)(放)(贷)(。但)(是)(对)(于)(那)(些)(非)(银)(行)(机)(构)(,比)(如)(说)(货)(币)(市)(场)(基)(金)(,它)(们)(在)(美)(联)(储)(并)(未)(拥)(有)(账)(户)(,则)(更)(倾)(向)(于)(低)(于)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(率)(的)(利)(率)(贷)(款)(。因)(此)(,超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(率)(并)(不)(是)(短)(期)(市)(场)(利)(率)(的)(底)(线)(。而)(事)(实)(上)(,目)(前)(它)(是)(被)(定)(为)(0.25%的)(理)(论)(上)(限)(。
  分)(析)(认)(为)(,当)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(利)(率)(提)(升)(时)(,也)(会)(推)(动)(市)(场)(利)(率)(上)(升)(。
  另)(外)(一)(个)(工)(具)(是)(隔)(夜)(回)(购)(协)(议)(市)(场)(。美)(联)(储)(向)(投)(资)(者)(出)(售)(证)(券)(,并)(且)(承)(诺)(随)(后)(赎)(回)(。回)(购)(协)(议)(本)(质)(上)(是)(由)(国)(债)(及)(其)(他)(债)(券)(担)(保)(的)(短)(期)(贷)(款)(,回)(购)(协)(议)(通)(过)(现)(金)(及)(债)(券)(在)(金)(融)(机)(构)(间)(的)(流)(动)(为)(证)(券)(市)(场)(提)(供)(了)(支)(撑)(。当)(美)(联)(储)(提)(高)(隔)(夜)(回)(购)(利)(率)(,联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(就)(也)(会)(随)(之)(升)(高)(。
  银)(行)(和)(监)(管)(机)(构)(一)(直)(试)(图)(确)(保)(回)(购)(交)(易)(的)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(,以)(避)(免)(该)(市)(场)(受)(到)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(困)(扰)(。《华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(》上)(周)(报)(道)(称)(,其)(中)(一)(项)(措)(施)(是)(,当)(前)(的)(交)(易)(清)(算)(行)(要)(求)(银)(行)(为)(处)(理)(回)(购)(交)(易)(的)(子)(公)(司)(提)(供)(500亿)(美)(元)(的)(信)(贷)(承)(诺)(。
  不)(过)(这)(两)(个)(工)(具)(会)(有)(效)(吗)(?美)(联)(储)(自)(从)(2013年)(9月)(以)(来)(就)(在)(测)(试)(上)(述)(货)(币)(政)(策)(工)(具)(的)(作)(用)(,并)(且)(充)(满)(了)(信)(心)(。但)(就)(本)(周)(议)(息)(而)(言)(,可)(能)(直)(到)(17日)(落)(槌)(之)(前)(,没)(有)(人)(能)(够)(确)(定)(。
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